한명숙 38.6% - 이계안 17.2% - 김성순 9.5% - 신계륜 8.0%
서울시장 민주당후보 선호도 조사, 이계안후보 가파른 상승세
한명숙 전총리가 독주해 온 민주당 서울시장후보 경선판도에 '이계안 변수'가 부상하고 있다. 이계안 후보캠프에 따르면, 최근 이 후보의 지지율이 가파른 상승세를 보이면서 한 전 총리와 양자구도를 형성하기 시작했다는 것이다.
여론조사 전문기관 휴먼리서치가 3월 14일, 15일 이틀 동안 서울시내 성인남녀 1,500명을 대상으로 조사한 결과에 따르면, 민주당 서울시장후보 선호도가 한명숙 38.6%-이계안 17.2%-김성순 9.5%-신계륜 8.0% 순으로 나타났다.
휴먼리서치 관계자는 "한 전 총리는 민주당 지지자 가운데 60%가 넘는 압도적 지지를 받으면서 고공행진을 이어가는 '응집형 후보'로 분석되고, 이계안 전 의원은 민주당 지지층과 한나라당 등 타당 지지층 간의 지지율 격차가 크지 않은 '확장형 후보'로 해석된다"고 밝혔다. 또한 "이번 민주당 서울시장 후보경선은 응집형 후보 대 확장형 후보의 대결이 될 것"으로 전망했다.
또한 최근 모 언론사에서 실시한 조사에서 이계안 후보가 8%로 나타난 것과 관련해서는 "이 같은 격차가 나타난 것은 해당 조사에서 무응답율이 50%에 달하는 점과 관계가 깊다"면서 이 후보의 경우 트렌드를 중심으로 볼 필요가 있다고 밝혔다. 이 후보측은 "다소 격차가 있지만 10% 이상 두자리수에 진입한 것만을 틀림없다"면서 상승추세를 강조했다. 이 언론사 조사에서도 이계안 후보는 지난해 12월 2.1%-1월 4.7%-2월 5.1%-3월초 8% 등으로 지속적인 상승세였다.
이계안 후보는 현대자동차 사장을 지낸 CEO 출신으로 '민주당의 숨은 진주'라는 평가를 받고 있지만, 그동안 낮은 인지도로 어려움을 겪어 왔다. 이 후보측은 이번 조사결과가 그동안 출근길 인사 등 얼굴 알리기가 가져 온 성과로 보고 앞으로도 유권자 접촉을 더욱 강화하겠다고 밝혔다.
이번 여론조사는 이계안 서울시장 예비후보사무소가 여론조사전문기관 휴먼리서치에서 의뢰해서 14, 15일 양일간 ARS(전화자동응답시스템)에 의한 인구비례 무작위 표본추출 방식으로 진행되었고, 표본오차 95%±2.5%, 응답율 7%다.
한편, 민주당 서울시장 후보 선출방식에 대해서는 응답자의 45.5%가 국민참여 경선을 선호했고, 시민공천배심원제 16.8%-당원경선 13.6%로 나타났다. 이는 당원과 일반 유권자 모두 시민들이 광범하게 참여할 수 있는 경선방식을 선호하는 것으로 해석된다.
2010년 3월 18일
민주당 이계안 서울시장 예비후보 사무소
※첨부: 서울시유권자 여론조사보고서(휴먼리서치)
※문의 : 휴먼리서치 대표전화 070-8266-5180
여론조사 자료 다운로드 : 서울시_유권자_여론조사_보고서(휴먼리서치).pdf
엮인글 '1'
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이상규‧안동섭 후보 “민주당, 소탐대실 말라” - 서울시장후보 이상규입니다
야당들의 선거연합 협상이 결렬 위기에 놓인 가운데 민주노동당 이상규 서울시장 예비후보와 안동섭 경기도지사 예비후보가 22일 오후 긴급기자회견을 열고 ‘제3기구 시민참여경선’과 서울시장‧경기도지사 후보들의 원탁회의를 제안했다. 두 예비후보는 “이번 지방선거에서 이명박 정부를 확실하게 심판하기 위해서는 민주진보세력이 단결하고 연대해야 한다는 것이 국민의 절박한 요청”이라면서 “이대로 각개약진한다면 야당 또한 국민의 준엄한 심판을 피할 수 없을 것이며 패..
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